The COVID-19 situation in Assam has worsened over the past 10 days, with higher fatality rates and lower recovery rates when compared to the August-September peak from the first wave.
Some experts believe the beginning of May is when the second wave peaked in Assam.
Close to 550 deaths have been recorded in the past 10 days – more than a quarter of all Covid-related deaths since the pandemic broke – at an average of more than 50 a day, compared to the seven-day average of 17 deaths recorded in mid-September.
The state reported its highest single-day fatalities on Tuesday – 85 people died. On Thursday 75 people died. The peak from the first wave was on September 13, when 23 people died.
Data shared by the National Health Mission (Assam) shows most of the deaths are from the Kamrup Metro district, where the state’s largest city and de facto capital, Guwahati, is located.
Nearly half of the deaths – around 47 per cent – were between 51 and 70 years old.
Data also suggests that if fatality rates are not checked Assam will record over 3,000 Covid-related deaths by the end of May; this will place the state among 20 states with the worst fatality rates.
At present, Assam is 22nd on that list.
The cumulative recovery rate is 85.74 per cent, as of Wednesday. The recovery rate for the past 10 days, though, is a relatively abysmal 66.8 percent. Assam reported 51,125 new COVID-19 cases in the past 10 days, of which only 34,157 were categorised as ‘recovered’.
Last year’s peak saw a recovery rate of 81 per cent.
Overall Assam has recording over 5,000 new cases per day in six of the past seven days. The seven-day moving average for new cases has been over that mark since Wednesday. By comparison, during the first wave the seven-day average for new cases peaked at 2,876 on September 6.
The state reported 6,258 cases on Tuesday – the most ever in a single day.
As of Friday morning Assam has over 43,000 active cases – 26 per cent more than the peak from the first wave, which was 34,496 cases on October 1.
As of Tuesday 5,660 people have been admitted to hospital, of whom 421 are in ICU. The remaining active cases are in home isolation.
NHM (Assam) data shows 10,844 free isolation beds, which includes oxygen support for 1,751, including 686 in ICUs. This also indicates the state only has 245 vacant ICU beds available.
Assam witnessed a rapid surge in COVID-19 cases beginning April 6 – the final phase of polling.
The positivity rate was 2.14 per cent for the April 14-20 period but that rose to 8.61 per cent for May 5-11, with the highest two figures – 15.56 and 14.18 per cent – reported in in Kamrup Metro and Kamrup districts.