From Bengal to Tamil Nadu, What The Trends Across States Mean

What do the trends indicate in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry, where votes are being counted on Sunday? And what do the trends mean? Here’s the lowdown at 2pm.

WEST BENGAL

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) was racing ahead in the electoral battle against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), according to the trends. The counting of votes began at 8am, and early morning leads indicated a neck-and-neck fight. Postal ballots were counted first. As the day progressed, the TMC seemed to have an advantage in the race, leading in close to 210 of the state’s 294 seats while the BJP was ahead in about 84 constituencies. In the high-profile Nandigram seat, the BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari was holding on to a lead against chief minister Mamata Banerjee.

What this means: A third straight term for Banerjee’s TMC and bragging rights in the battleground state. The BJP leadership had set a target of winning at least 200 of the state’s 294 seats. On the other hand, the TMC maintained its rival will not reach the three-figure mark. According to the trends, the TMC was doing well in its traditional stronghold of South Bengal as well as North Bengal, where the BJP gained a foothold in 2019 on its way to winning 18 of the state’s 42 seats. It also means that the TMC may not fall far behind its 2016 assembly election tally of 211 seats.

TAMIL NADU

With over 140 seats, MK Stalin’s Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and its allies were past the majority mark in Tamil Nadu, which has 234 seats. The incumbent All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) was close to the 90-mark.

What this means: The DMK’s return to power after a decade and Stalin becoming the chief minister for the first time, according to the trends. However, CM Edappadi Palaniswami would surprise pollsters as he looked set to steer his party to an impressive tally, one that is way above exit poll predictions.

The results will put an end to the debate on who sits on the throne for the next five years and also determine the shape of Dravidian politics in the absence of the charismatic J Jayalalithaa of the ruling AIADMK and the colossus M Karunanidhi of the DMK.

KERALA

Chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s Left alliance was ahead in around 95 of the state’s 140 seats. The Congress coalition was leading in close to 40.

What this means: A big upset for the Congress could be on the cards, according to the trends. If they hold, the result would mark a departure from the political tradition of the state that usually changes its government every five years. While the Congress was searching for a win to boost the sagging morale of its workers in Kerala and elsewhere, and, to some extent, silence critics within and outside the party. But Vijayan remains a popular figure despite debates over anti-incumbency. His government’s handling of the Covid outbreak during its initial days and management of the floods have earned him praise. A win would also boost the Left as Kerala is the only state where the communists hold power.

ASSAM

The BJP’s alliance had leads in about 75 seats in the north-eastern state having a total of 126 assembly seats. The Congress alliance was ahead in 48.

What this means: The BJP, under the leadership of chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal, could be headed for a second straight term in power, as predicted by the exit polls. It also means the party managed to successfully navigate the tricky corridors of identity politics. It had adopted a multi-pronged strategy of highlighting its development work and schemes, while attacking the Congress for aligning with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF)’s Badruddin Ajmal, who the ruling alliance says is an enemy of the Assamese identity. In Assam, the AIUDF is perceived to be a party having the support of Bengali-origin Muslims from Bangladesh, who many contend pose a threat to the state’s cultural identity. A stance against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, which triggered protests in the state, was a major pillar of the campaign being run by the opposition Congress-led alliance. If the trends hold, it would mean the BJP was successful in its strategy to counter that narrative.

PUDUCHERRY

The All India NR Congress-BJP combine was ahead in eight of the Union Territory’s 30 seats, on course to forming a government there for the first time, according to the trends. The Congress was leading in four.

What this means: Puducherry is key to the BJP’s southern strategy. According to analysts, a poll victory there could be the springboard for the saffron party to dive into the seat of power in Tamil Nadu, where it wants to expand its footprint. Observers say the BJP’s plan could be to usher in huge development and infra projects to the tiny Union Territory, create jobs, and lift the standard of living after ensuring the victory of its alliance — before going big on Tamil Nadu. Just before the polls, in February, the Congress-led government in Puducherry lost a floor test after a series of defections.

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